24th February 2011, 12:36 PM
(This post was last modified: 24th February 2011, 12:52 PM by GnomeKing.)
[well I heard it on the BBC R4, so it must be true]
[More broadly]
I see little hope.
Paranoia or Scary Sense? the analysis of Lindsey Williams is unfortunately beginning to make sound rational.
To briefly summarise:
When oil wealth was first discovered in Middle East, the big oil companies and US struck deals whereby American oil fields would be closed down and reserves undeveloped, whilst middle eastern oil would be invested. In return US gets good price + middle eastern profits are obligated to effectively invest in American dollar bonds.
America has vast reserves of oil in its own territory, much of it only accessible by enormously damaging extraction methods >>>> there has been an alleged plan/plot not to develop them until world oil prices reach $200 per barrel
Furthermore, the long term demise of the dollar as the world reserve currency has also been anticipated - when this crashes, it will write of middle eastern assets in the form of American dollar bonds >> this will collapse those economies and cause economic chaos, with global ramifications.
As foreign oil supplies become unaffordable, and USA (+the world) enter depression, it will be easy to begin extraction in USA, regardless of opposition, concern, or ethics. Furthermore, these fields will have major market presence, at astronomical prices.....the rich will get richer, beyond even our humble imaginings....
"we will not open American reserves until oil hits $200/barrel"-"the Greenies will be silenced or change their minds after a good hard dose of Depression" - --- chaos in the middle east certainly raises prices.... carbon taxes seem to raise prices...
BP oil spill anybody? (just another technical oversight?, like 'missing' the 7/7 suspects but shooting Charles DeMenezies, or 'trusting' the single testimony of a defector about WMD in Iraq?, Or an 'unanticipated' collapse of the financial sector? Like a government that shouts loud about democracy elsewhere, but will not listen to its own citizens? ...whoops, so sorry, our bad...)
we commonly berate finance/politicians/corporate business for short term outlooks (the next budget/election/accounting period etc) - but I think we have been encouraged to think this - there certainly are long term corporate plans, and Oil Companies in particular have out looks on 25+ year time-scales......i have to say this is beginning to worry me.
In this context, it is clear to see that around the world, any country without oil reserves will now be looking seriously at Whatever alternatives, and at whatever Cost....
It is hard to see a better future for heritage and archaeology...tourism will be f*cked due to oil prices and instability worldwide - people will be concerned with the 'Basics' and not the finer points of archaeological enquiry....
If we are to save Anything At All, we are going to have to Seriously Prioritise....
Lets not, for example, make the same mistakes as a certain well known unit previously involved with dams in Turkey....huge focus on some Roman town somewhere (boring!) at the expense of much, MUCH deeper prehistory in the same area...
(paleo caves, very VERY early domestication...just imagine the amount of undiscovered soil-based arch lurking in a region like that, never mind the big obvious Roman settlements...this can never even be Assessed at the most crude level once flooded and buried....unlike the 'historic' sites which are located and 'protected' by sand......in practice, the non-urban archaeology of the area is lost forever, with only tantalising and depressingly vague scant record.)
(but look at all the lovely pots and mosaics - our American funders really REALLY like them...)
A much stronger case has to made against 'Antiquities' and for Early Human/Civilisation Research...if we must chose, then we MUST keep the earliest remains, and let the Bloody Romans drown.
.
[More broadly]
I see little hope.
Paranoia or Scary Sense? the analysis of Lindsey Williams is unfortunately beginning to make sound rational.
To briefly summarise:
When oil wealth was first discovered in Middle East, the big oil companies and US struck deals whereby American oil fields would be closed down and reserves undeveloped, whilst middle eastern oil would be invested. In return US gets good price + middle eastern profits are obligated to effectively invest in American dollar bonds.
America has vast reserves of oil in its own territory, much of it only accessible by enormously damaging extraction methods >>>> there has been an alleged plan/plot not to develop them until world oil prices reach $200 per barrel
Furthermore, the long term demise of the dollar as the world reserve currency has also been anticipated - when this crashes, it will write of middle eastern assets in the form of American dollar bonds >> this will collapse those economies and cause economic chaos, with global ramifications.
As foreign oil supplies become unaffordable, and USA (+the world) enter depression, it will be easy to begin extraction in USA, regardless of opposition, concern, or ethics. Furthermore, these fields will have major market presence, at astronomical prices.....the rich will get richer, beyond even our humble imaginings....
"we will not open American reserves until oil hits $200/barrel"-"the Greenies will be silenced or change their minds after a good hard dose of Depression" - --- chaos in the middle east certainly raises prices.... carbon taxes seem to raise prices...
BP oil spill anybody? (just another technical oversight?, like 'missing' the 7/7 suspects but shooting Charles DeMenezies, or 'trusting' the single testimony of a defector about WMD in Iraq?, Or an 'unanticipated' collapse of the financial sector? Like a government that shouts loud about democracy elsewhere, but will not listen to its own citizens? ...whoops, so sorry, our bad...)
we commonly berate finance/politicians/corporate business for short term outlooks (the next budget/election/accounting period etc) - but I think we have been encouraged to think this - there certainly are long term corporate plans, and Oil Companies in particular have out looks on 25+ year time-scales......i have to say this is beginning to worry me.
In this context, it is clear to see that around the world, any country without oil reserves will now be looking seriously at Whatever alternatives, and at whatever Cost....
It is hard to see a better future for heritage and archaeology...tourism will be f*cked due to oil prices and instability worldwide - people will be concerned with the 'Basics' and not the finer points of archaeological enquiry....
If we are to save Anything At All, we are going to have to Seriously Prioritise....
Lets not, for example, make the same mistakes as a certain well known unit previously involved with dams in Turkey....huge focus on some Roman town somewhere (boring!) at the expense of much, MUCH deeper prehistory in the same area...
(paleo caves, very VERY early domestication...just imagine the amount of undiscovered soil-based arch lurking in a region like that, never mind the big obvious Roman settlements...this can never even be Assessed at the most crude level once flooded and buried....unlike the 'historic' sites which are located and 'protected' by sand......in practice, the non-urban archaeology of the area is lost forever, with only tantalising and depressingly vague scant record.)
(but look at all the lovely pots and mosaics - our American funders really REALLY like them...)
A much stronger case has to made against 'Antiquities' and for Early Human/Civilisation Research...if we must chose, then we MUST keep the earliest remains, and let the Bloody Romans drown.
.