24th July 2007, 12:29 PM
Some of our projects have been affected in the West Midlands.
These recent floods are exceptional because they are in summer, but I should think something of this order occurred once every 100 to 200 years throughout history. Just look at the 'Water Gate' at Worcester. I am told by the engineers in our local authority that this is a '1-in-100 year event'.
Nevertheless it is striking from what I have seen that the worst-affected areas are mainly 19th, 20th and 21st century suburbs. The historic medieval (and earlier) core of most of our affected towns and cities are relatively unscathed. The fact is that for Tewksbury Abbey this is a 1-in-250 year event.
Areas such as (for example) the Lower Don Valley in Sheffield, or parts of the Severn floodplain, or even those low-lying suburbs of north Oxford have all been built on during the last 200 years. Even the most cursory glance at historic mapping shows all of these areas to be relatively undeveloped until relatively recently. Increasing canalisation and regulation of rivers and watercourses gave people confidence to build in historically flood-prone areas, and 99 years out of 100 they are fine.
Only in the last couple of hundred years has the pressure for space been such that formerly 'out-of-bounds' areas have been used for housing. Earlier industrial uses (such as mills and forges) were obviously affected by such events but needed water power so there was a trade-off. In the space of most commonly held 21-year leases on such sites the chances of a major flood were sufficiently low to be worth the risk. The decline of water power and the pressure for cheap housing has meant that many flood-prone areas have subsequently been built on.
Therefore in my view the current problems are more to do with over-population and hubris than exceptional weather patterns.
To answer the question: archaeology can provide the long view which puts these events into perspective.
These recent floods are exceptional because they are in summer, but I should think something of this order occurred once every 100 to 200 years throughout history. Just look at the 'Water Gate' at Worcester. I am told by the engineers in our local authority that this is a '1-in-100 year event'.
Nevertheless it is striking from what I have seen that the worst-affected areas are mainly 19th, 20th and 21st century suburbs. The historic medieval (and earlier) core of most of our affected towns and cities are relatively unscathed. The fact is that for Tewksbury Abbey this is a 1-in-250 year event.
Areas such as (for example) the Lower Don Valley in Sheffield, or parts of the Severn floodplain, or even those low-lying suburbs of north Oxford have all been built on during the last 200 years. Even the most cursory glance at historic mapping shows all of these areas to be relatively undeveloped until relatively recently. Increasing canalisation and regulation of rivers and watercourses gave people confidence to build in historically flood-prone areas, and 99 years out of 100 they are fine.
Only in the last couple of hundred years has the pressure for space been such that formerly 'out-of-bounds' areas have been used for housing. Earlier industrial uses (such as mills and forges) were obviously affected by such events but needed water power so there was a trade-off. In the space of most commonly held 21-year leases on such sites the chances of a major flood were sufficiently low to be worth the risk. The decline of water power and the pressure for cheap housing has meant that many flood-prone areas have subsequently been built on.
Therefore in my view the current problems are more to do with over-population and hubris than exceptional weather patterns.
To answer the question: archaeology can provide the long view which puts these events into perspective.