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+--- Thread: IfA Recession Seminar (/showthread.php?tid=1409)
IfA Recession Seminar - Sparky - 25th February 2009
Tile man,
Paul has described any apparent recruitment to the IfA by Peter Hinton as a red herring and he is completely right that this shouldn't distract us from the main themes and the efforts made by all.
However, I feel I should respond to your equally asinine comments. Any comments relating to Peter Hinton are directed at his association with the IfA, not his character or his personal life. Please realise the difference. Like any Chief Executive, he has responsibilities and consequently a few crosses-to bear.
Back to the positives?.
IfA Recession Seminar - BAJR Host - 25th February 2009
I must myself apologise (again) for my outburst... and as Sparky says... can we hit the positives
To that end... lets bring this thread to an end... and start another...
?When a sinister person means to be your enemy, they always start by trying to become your friend.?
William Blake
IfA Recession Seminar - Paul Belford - 26th February 2009
Sorry to perpetuate a closed thread, but you might all like to know that Kenny Aitchison has posted his contribution to the seminar on his blog. This includes the text of what he said as well as the powerpoint presentation.
Paul Belford
IfA Recession Seminar - BAJR Host - 26th February 2009
Glad to see - and nice to see he links to your excellent summary. Glad we asked you. And glad you took the time to do it. Presently, the BAJR survey has over 100 companies who have replied and the statistics will be ready for Monday. They may show that things are perhaps at the limit... and come April/May things might change - for the better. I don't think we will see a return to pre crash levels, but stabilisation is looking like a real option.
?When a sinister person means to be your enemy, they always start by trying to become your friend.?
William Blake
IfA Recession Seminar - Paul Belford - 26th February 2009
I really really hope you are right, but I do worry... if the banks aren't lending to developers, or property buyers, or anyone - then where is the money going to come from to pay for archaeology?
I am doubtful about much scope for improvement before 2010.
Thanks also for linking on your blog (and thence on the CBA site) and other places. All of us pulling together to get the information out there...
Paul Belford
IfA Recession Seminar - drpeterwardle - 26th February 2009
The lack of new lending is clearly a major issue but the government is trying to solve this. The unknown is when is this going to have an effect on development starting. Given the time it takes for planning permission to be obtained the first signs of recovery should be dbas and pre-permission evaluations.
However, there will be many schemes which have permission already which will start once the market improves or schemes which are post the archaeology phase start back up.
Peter
IfA Recession Seminar - leic - 28th February 2009
Credit is crucial and the previous building boom was fed by Chinese and Gulf cash surplus. It was a crisis that had to happen sooner or later. Gordon Brown also fuelled the housing boom by destroying confidence in pensions. My neighbours used to be teachers and lectures but are now students. They had their wallets burned and we are not going to see the credit based economy of the 1990s in our lifetimes. There is still a major structural problem in that house prices are still too high for average first time borrowers. The government is limited in what it can do in terms of infrastructure investment as it has lent so much money to the banks and we will see them crawing back money soon from the public sector. The Irish government has already put a massive pension levy on all public sector workers. If we go the IMF god help those employed in the public sector- look at Hungary. If we escape a deflationary economy we are going to see a very prolonged recovery. The building industry will recover but I doubt it will be anywhere near the 2005 level even in a decade. However, this is a good thing for the preservation of archaeology and heritage if not for individual archaeologists.
IfA Recession Seminar - YellowPete - 28th February 2009
The government has already started to tap into local government pension schemes for cash to keep projects of school renovations going.
If these long-term return loans don't match to the age range of local government employees, then there is going to be a short fall.
The local government needs to spend the money because they need to keep fulfilling their commitments to educate their communities.
The council tax was meant to be frozen, but with the loss of so much money in foreign banks by groups, including councils, its unlikely to even remain close to inflation.
The loss of some schemes to Icelandic and tax haven banks, mean that some of the cash is locked up in litigation.
This seems like the cash reserves are locked into shortfall schemes, because the youth of today live for today and safe for a splash.
This non-saving mentality could result in mass deficit.
The youth are also increasingly burdened with a financially crippling debt to become educated, which then leaves them as uuber consumers, driven by debt to meet further requirements of debt.
Investing in the future begins to sound more like a lead yoke that even Genghis couldn't shirk off.
Interesting the Mongol empire used to have a law where you had 3 opportunities to run a business and go bankrupt. On failing the third time you were executed.
No need to invest in a future, if you have already lost your head.
People are saving now but the money needs to go into non-privatised schemes, as this means that the government expenditure of pension based loans, will result in taxation for the bottom line rather than for taxation to recover a nation, which would outlast an economic climate.
The bottom line can work by keeping the finance vitalised, but then what are the politicians doing?
If they are working out bargains and deals, whose monitoring the bargains, to keep it within its own margins of viability and long-term interest.
Cross the t, dot the i. A coma here, a coma there, with millions lost either side.
Is it in the interest of the mystery magician to sell out the circle?
Which financier is going to don the mask?
Lets face it, it's too late for these questions, other than how did we lose touch with action and consequence?
To bring the parable on home:
If we as archaeologists are going to broker deals on and off the backs, of the indebted class, then at what point are we going to broker a standardised margins for error.
For now we need the cash flow, but in the long term, what does this do to those who will work those fields?
Situational standards, of a margin for error.
Work the plate, to save for the plate, but this is short termism to the n'th degree.
We?ll work to hold it together to deflate, at our own rate, but only on the grounds of a situational standard, with a margin for error.
Lose this and then will we have lost our humanity.
Finally and concertedly across the board
Thats finally,
and concertedly
txt is
Mike
IfA Recession Seminar - YellowPete - 2nd March 2009
And its with this reasoning to mind where we must all think of troll's signiture
action without thought is insanity, but thought without action is vanity.
txt is
Mike
IfA Recession Seminar - drpeterwardle - 4th March 2009
The IFA report can be found on
http://www.archaeologists.net/modules/icontent/index.php?page=219
Peter